2020 polls: President Trump nearly as unpopular going into November election as Hillary Clinton was in 2016
The president reveals what it's like in California and what it looks like (AFP via Getty Images).
Donald Trump has no days left to change the current course of the presidential election after a week of pulling out of a debate scheduled for October 15 and when Vice President Mike Pence apparently failed to attract more voters could spotlight last week. The polls have become so one-sided that Republicans fear a Democratic “blue wave” in November that also puts control of the Senate at stake.
The current poll average is a 10.6 point advantage in favor of former Vice President Biden and incumbent Senator Kamala Harris.
On September 29th, this average was only 6.1 points. Before election day on November 3, the last debate on October 22, there is only one major event on the calendar.
In the two recently published polls that were fully surveyed after the VP debate, the Biden-Harris margin is actually above the current average at 11.5 points (12 in ABC / Washington Post and 11 in IBD / TIPP).
The Trump campaign, hampered by a lack of funds leading to ads running in swing states, has not so far been as successful remotely disguising Biden as Hillary Clinton did in 2016.
Currently, Biden's favorable / unfavorable number is positive (lower) by 6.9 points according to the average values determined by RealClearPolitics.
Compare that to Clinton in 2016, when the former first lady was seen 12.9 points less favorable on the eve of the election. That's a swing of 19.5 points in favor of the Democrats. The president's average is 42.9 percent favorable to 54.2 percent unfavorable (minus -11.3).
If the current poll proves prophetic, it is almost certain that the GOP's control of the Senate will be lost. Most Senate elections take the route of the state's presidential election.
According to Pew Research, 122 out of 139 (87.8 percent) "have been won by candidates belonging to or related to the party that won that state's most recent presidential race" since 2012.
According to the current voting card, which is based on averages, that would mean the Democrats would paint the current red seats in the GOP Senate in Arizona, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina and Iowa blue.
Your only loss in this model would be in Alabama. That would give the Democrats a 51:49 lead and make Chuck Schumer (New York) the new majority leader.
"If so," wrote Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium, "... the ramifications could affect up to five Senate races, six state legislatures, and the reallocation of over 90 house seats for a decade."
Why is the correlation so strong in this modern electorate? "One obvious reason is that voting on straight tickets is increasing," he added. "When we become more polarized, party preference overwhelms other considerations."
Mr. Wang's model is for Biden to win 369 votes, which is much higher than the required 270. It is also estimated that the polls would have to move an average of 6.0 points towards Mr. Trump over the next three weeks, to make the race a throw. above.
With the FiveThirtyEight model, which focuses on status queries and weights them for accuracy, Biden won 86 percent of the 40,000 simulations. The most common of these results is Biden north of 400 votes.
The forecast for 2020 includes an average of 35 models and a Biden win probability of 82.9 percent.
What is becoming increasingly interesting is that betting models have barely moved in the past few weeks as poll support for President Trump has apparently collapsed. Bettors still give the incumbent an implied 39 percent chance for a second term. That is at least twice as much as forecast in the survey models. Why the difference?
"This suggests that the betting markets believe that there are other factors - besides voting errors and surprises in October - that could lead to a Trump victory," said Taegan Goddard of Political Wire.
“That could mean Joe Biden dies before the election. But it could also mean that Trump "wins" in key states in other ways - for example through fraud or legal gimmicks. "
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