A million barrels of oil could come to market if a nuclear deal is reached with Iran - but it wouldn't be a 'light switch' fix for the world's energy crisis, RBC commodities chief says

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry (L), U.S. Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz (2nd L), head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Agency Ali Akbar Salehi (2nd R) and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif (R) wait with others before a meeting March 26. March 2015.
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A million barrels of oil could hit the market if the US and Iran revive the 2015 nuclear deal.
A deal could ease the pain as EU bans on Russian oil products are due to come into effect by the end of the year.
But it's not a quick fix: "It's not a light switch. It's a potentially multi-month process," RBC's Helima Croft said.
A million barrels of oil could be added to the global energy market if the US and Iran revive the dead 2015 nuclear deal -- but even if they do, it won't be the "light switch" for a global energy crisis, RBC commodities chief Helima Croft said.
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The US withdrew from the deal in 2018, under which Iran agreed to limit and inspect its nuclear activities in exchange for temporary exemptions from international sanctions.
The waiver previously allowed Iran to sell its oil on the global market - which is why US and Iranian officials have tried to revive it as the world grapples with an energy crisis stemming from Russia's tightening of its energy exports to the global market.
US and Iranian officials debated the matter over the past week, and the European Union announced on Monday that it was laying down the "final" text of the deal, Reuters reported, meaning Iran must agree to all the terms or reject the deal package complete.
If an agreement is reached, it would be a major victory for Europe, which faces potential hardship this winter due to gas shortages. It would also ease the pain if the EU bans on Russian oil products went into full effect on December 5, taking another 2.2 million barrels of oil off the market, Croft said.
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But even then, getting Iranian supplies to market won't be the quick fix that some are hoping for.
"The question with Iran is, do the Iranian leaders want to make this deal?" Croft said in an interview on CNBC, noting that US and Iranian leaders came close to reaching an agreement in March this year before Iran backed down.
She pointed out that Iran had negotiated to end a US probe into past nuclear weapons and permanently exempt the country from international sanctions, although Croft said there was "no way" President Biden would fulfill the second promise.
The deal also needs to be approved by Congress as well as Iran, which means it is far from having any impact on Europe's energy crisis.
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"It's not a light switch. It's a potentially multi-month process," Croft said. “But again, with those Russian casks on the balance sheet in December, additional shipments from Iran would help.
Read the original article on Business Insider

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