Biden moves to stave off surprise loss in Nevada
Could Nevada be the Michigan of 2020 - a state the Democrats had in their pockets, but that is unexpectedly true of Donald Trump?
One statistic about the state has troubled Democrats throughout the cycle: Hillary Clinton won it with less than she lost to Arizona, the neighboring battlefield. Joe Biden visits Nevada during his western swing on Friday to protect himself from any excess consciousness.
Biden leads Donald Trump in Nevada averaging 7 points, but the state hasn't received much attention and Democrats are relieved that Biden is going there. Many Latinos within the party have warned that Biden cannot take the state for granted. Despite his fundraising advantage, Biden is ready to spend $ 2.3 million on television in the state by election day, compared with $ 3.2 million on Trump, according to media tracker Advertising Analytics. (Trump doesn't spend anything on Spanish in Nevada, compared to Biden's $ 200,000.)
Biden spends more in Arizona: two weeks in a row he's fallen more in the massive Phoenix media market than any other market in the country.
Latino Democratic pollsters and outside groups were concerned about a shift to the right in Silver State. In September the Cook Political Report moved Nevada from a "probable Democrat" to a "slim Democrat".
Latino Voters: So far, Trump hasn't crossed the 30 percent threshold with Latino voters in Nevada, a key indicator that Democrats hope will prevent him from getting a surprise in the state.
A recent poll by Latino-led Democratic firm Equis Research found that Trump is 26 percent of Latinos, just like it was in late August. Meanwhile, Biden is slightly ahead of Clinton's final number, receiving 62 percent support from the key demographic.
To keep Trump below that threshold, external groups are throwing more money into the state. This week, Somos PAC launched $ 1 million in Spanish-language TV and radio purchases to reintroduce Biden to Latinos, and shared his family history and time as vice president.
"The thing about Nevada is that we haven't seen as much focus or interest in the state as we did in 2016," said Melissa Morales, president of Somos PAC.
Chuck Rocha, former advisor to Bernie Sanders who ran the Senator's Latino reach that led to a primary win, is trying to engage the younger Latinos who drove Sanders' victory.
An ad from his Nuestro PAC shows Latinos who voted for Sanders in elementary school and are now behind Biden, citing his suggestions on climate change and student debt.
Geoconda Arguello-Kline, secretary of the Culinary Union's treasury, said more than 200 of its members are campaigning neighborhoods to increase voter turnout and help voters understand changes in choice.
Trump's move: The president's campaign is ongoing in Nevada. Trump visited the state in September and Vice President Mike Pence held a rally there Thursday, the day after his debate against Senator Kamala Harris in neighboring Utah.
At Thursday's rally, Pence highlighted the government's handling of the coronavirus pandemic, claiming they had "saved countless American lives". Trump caught the virus last week, and the country's death toll topped 211,000.
The pandemic has hit Nevada particularly hard as tourism has declined and unemployment remains at one of the highest rates in the country.
Trump's team sees room for growth, however, given the tight result in 2016 when he lost 2.4 points. Republicans have targeted Mormon voters in the state in hopes of winning back those who rejected him in greater numbers than previous Republican candidates. More than half a million members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints live in Nevada and Arizona.
A poll by the New York Times-Siena College this week gave Trump a slight head start among those 65 and over, showing that most of his support came from Reno and rural parts of the state. Biden led the poll with 48 to 42 points overall.
In defense: On Friday, Biden will visit East Las Vegas, home to large numbers of Latinos, and make remarks at a drive-in-car event on a second stop in town.
Biden's campaign also focused on digital outreach and working with influencers on social media in Nevada to reach younger Latinos.
"Nevada is always a battlefield," a Biden advisor told reporters this week on-call.
“We don't take anything for granted. That's why the Vice President goes there. "
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