'Big Short' investor Michael Burry warns stocks will crash and rallies won't last. Here's a roundup of his recent tweets and what they mean.
Michael Burry. Photo by Kevin Mazur/WireImage
"The Big Short" investor Michael Burry expects a much stronger slump on the stock markets.
The Scion Asset Management chief's view is based on how past crashes have played out.
Burry warned that brief rallies were likely and joked about his penchant for hasty predictions.
Michael Burry, the hedge fund manager from "The Big Short", sounded the alarm last summer about the "biggest asset bubble of all things ever". He warned retail investors piled into meme stocks and cryptocurrencies that they were heading for the "mother of all crashes."
The Scion Asset Management chief's dire prediction could come true as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices are down 15% and 24%, respectively, this year. In tweets he has since deleted, Burry has given credit for canceling the sell-off, explained why he expects further declines and warned against buying into aid rallies.
Here's a summary of Burry's latest tweets about the stock market crash:
The pandemic crash was just the beginning
The S&P 500 index has rebounded sharply from the spring 2020 pandemic crash, rising from a low of 2,192 points to 4,089 points at Tuesday's close. However, it could plummet by 54% to 1,862 points in the next few years, Burry tweeted on May 3.
When the S&P 500 has plummeted in the past, it has traded lower a few years later, Burry noted. He pointed out that the index was 13% lower in 2009 than in 2002, 17% lower in 2002 than during the Long-Term Capital Management fiasco in 1998, and 10% lower in 1975 than in 1970.
If the benchmark index follows this historical pattern, it could be trading 15% below its spring 2020 level, Burry said.
There can be epic but short-lived rallies
A "dead cat bounce" refers to a temporary rebound in stock prices after a significant decline, often as speculators buy stocks to cover their positions.
They often occur during large stock market declines, Burry said in a May 4 tweet. The implication is that investors should not pin their hopes on rallies in the coming months as they are likely to be brief respites that will not result in a market rebound.
Burry noted that 12 of the 20 largest single-day rallies in the Nasdaq index occurred when the dot-com bubble burst, while nine of the S&P 500's 20 largest single-day rallies occurred after the Great Crash of 1929.
Don't be fooled by rising stocks
Stocks could stage multiple rallies before the crash is over, Burry warned in a May 5 tweet.
He noted that after the dot-com bubble burst, the Nasdaq rallied more than 10% 16 times -- gaining an average of 23% each time -- on its way to a 78% decline at its bottom.
Burry also noted that after the great crash of 1929, the Dow Jones index rose more than 10% 10 times, rising an average of 23% each time, before bottoming out with an 89% drop.
Stocks are on a dangerous course
The US stock market appears to be following the pattern of previous bubbles and is poised for a monumental crash, Burry noted in a May 8 tweet.
The Scion CEO pointed to the performance of the S&P 500 over the past 10 years, noting that it compares to the Index chart for the decade before the dot-com crash and the Dow chart for the 10 years before the Great Crash of 1929 was strikingly similar.
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