Coronavirus chaos in Georgia, Wisconsin a 'warning sign' for Democrats
Even the act of voting has become a partisan issue with racist effects in 2020.
Republicans say far more often than Democrats that they are willing to vote in person during a pandemic, while Democrats outperform Republicans if they want to vote in the mail, according to a new POLITICO / Morning Consult poll that also shows racist differences.
The reasons for the partisan division became clear in Tuesday's difficult elections in Georgia and in Wisconsin's controversial area code on April 7. It also takes place in federal court cases in battlefield states where Democrats call for more mail-in voting options while Republicans resist.
However, the challenge of holding elections during a pandemic - and the resulting political division between them - poses particular problems for the Democrats due to geographic and racist problems.
Coronavirus spreads more easily in densely populated urban areas - where Democrats tend to be more Republicans - and has been shown to be more deadly for African Americans and Hispanics, who are more distant for Democrats. In addition to this double strike, the coronavirus threat has led to district closings affecting voters in combined polling stations, often in urban or democratic areas.
In the area code on Tuesday in Georgia, people waited up to six hours for a vote due to a combination of long lines in combined districts and voting machine failures. The problems were most pronounced in areas with a large number of African Americans. There would probably have been more black voters physically in the elections, but many voted in the mail - to overcome the caution that many have when entrusting their ballots to the US Postal Service.
"A lot of black voters want to vote in person so they can go to the ballot box because they don't trust the Post," said Cliff Albright, founder of Atlanta-based Black Voters Matter, a mobilization and contact group that works across the southeast.
According to the POLITICO / Morning Consult poll, only 28 percent of Democrats said they would vote personally in the election, compared to 63 percent of Republicans who are willing to do so when November demands for social distancing remain. When it comes to mail-in polls, Democrats outnumber Republicans by 67 to 33 percent, the poll shows.
"This feeling [in terms of mail-in polls] is changing as more and more people don't vote and want to contract coronavirus and die," said Albright. "But some people didn't get their postal votes - it happened to my son. It took him six hours to vote early on Friday. So there is this overlapping Venn diagram of the coronavirus lethality, which overlaps with long lines at the polling station, and Problems just making a postal vote. "
Coronavirus-related district closings and other problems that disproportionately affected Democrats were not limited to Georgia. They also affected the presidential primaries on the Florida, Arizona, and Illinois battlefield on March 15, and the controversial Wisconsin area code on April 7. And in Pennsylvania, voters had 77 percent fewer counties where they could vote in Philadelphia on June 2.
The POLITICO / Morning Consult survey underscores the observation by Albright and others who have found a strong interest in mail-in voting among African Americans.
The poll found 54 percent of black voters said they would prefer to vote in the mail during the pandemic, compared to 28 percent who said they would still go to the polling station in person. By 49 to 44 percent, whites would prefer to vote by mail rather than face to face in a pandemic, and Hispanics would prefer to vote in person by mail by 43 to 38 percent.
Overall, voters preferred mail-in voting to personal voting by 50 to 41 percent.
Bob Stein, a political scientist and pollster at Rice University, said support for mail-in voting among democratic voters has shifted significantly since the coronavirus epidemic began. Republican support declined accordingly. During a 1,000-sample poll in Harris County, Houston, Stein said he saw support for mail-in voting among Republicans who previously voted by mail decreased 7 percentage points when Trump started mail-in Criticize votes.
"I've never seen anything like it," said Stein.
An election worker disinfects a voting machine in Indiana.
While mail-in polls can be more susceptible to fraud than personal polls, experts believe that election fraud and election review are extremely rare and rarely provide clues as to the results of important elections. Trump, who has even voted by mail in Florida, has also pointed out that one of the major concerns he has with a Democratic bill in Congress over postal voting and other election problems was that "if you would ever agree, would you ever have chosen a republican in this country again. "
The POLITICO / Morning Consult poll shows that 33 percent of the total voters believed that Democrats were mostly helped by the fact that all voters can vote on postal ballots. Only 6 percent believed it would bring more benefits to the Republicans, and 37 percent said it wouldn't help either party more than the other.
When it comes to identifying parties, 47 percent of Republicans believed that postal voting would help Democrats in particular, compared to 27 percent of Democrats and 25 percent of independents who believed so.
Republican fears were also more pronounced than that of Independents and Democrats when respondents were asked which statement they disagreed with: Should the United States allow all voters to submit postal ballot papers because of the corona virus? or should this not be allowed because it jeopardizes electoral security?
The survey found that 34 percent of Republicans would approve extended mail-in voting, while 58 percent said they care more about security. But 81 percent of the Democrats and 56 percent of the independents favored the expansion of postal voting, while 10 percent of the Democrats and 28 percent of the independents paid more attention to security. Overall, voters in this scenario are in favor of 58 to 31 percent mail-in voting.
However, voting by email can sound easier than it is. First-time voters tend to be affected by certain signature and verification requirements, which may vary from state to state.
"When you do something for the first time, you will make mistakes," said political scientist Christopher Mann from Skidmore College, who studies mail-in voting.
In Florida, where signatures on envelopes must match the voter's signature at the district election director, ballot papers are more likely to be rejected by first-time voters than by experienced voters who tend to be older, white, and republican. According to research by Dan Smith from the University of Florida.
Democrats from Florida to Pennsylvania have set themselves the task of increasing voter registration and mail-in voting requests to Republicans, but Democrats often have lower response rates than Republicans.
"When these requests are turned into actual votes, the real work begins and it is much more difficult than it sounds," said Ryan Tyson, a Florida Republican adviser.
The Florida and National Democratic parties state that they have invested more money in public relations and education for voters, including specific instructions to guide people through the process of requesting and properly voting on a postal ballot.
Even so, the Democrats in California have lost a special congressional election that was mostly mail. Democrats had a registration advantage over Republicans of 6.6 percentage points in the 25th congressional district of California, but the GOP returned more ballots.
"Joe Biden followers are barely intense enough to tweet about him," said Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.). "The president's supporters would gargle corona virus-flavored ginger ale while waiting in line to vote for him."
However, Trump follows Biden in almost all national and most polls in the battlefield state, including Florida.
On the way to the Pennsylvania primary on Tuesday, the Conservatives crowed that Democrats for Biden underperformed because more people voted for Trump in the undisputed Republican primary compared to democratic competition. But Biden got 10 percent more votes than Trump. Democrats also point out that voter turnout in Georgia was enormous. And in the area code in Wisconsin on April 7, Democrats came into force and won a controversial seat at the state's Supreme Court.
The Democratic victory in Wisconsin came despite major problems for black voters in Milwaukee, where all but five of 180 counties were closed due to corona virus. In heavily black areas, the total number of ballots between the Supreme Court in February and the race on April 7 increased by less than 40 percent, while the total number of ballots in the state rose by 119 percent, according to an analysis by democratic data consultant Matt Isbell.
A return of the corona virus and the suppression of voters that can occur among black and urban voters could swing the general election in Wisconsin, Isbell said. That's right, he said, in other battlefield countries like Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Florida, which Trump also wore in 2016.
"What we saw in Wisconsin, Philadelphia, Georgia is a warning sign," said Isbell. "We have to give each Democrat an absentee ballot and make sure that he delivers it correctly."
Morning Consult is a global data intelligence company that provides real-time insight into people's mindsets by interviewing tens of thousands around the world every day.
For more details on the survey and its methodology, see these two documents: Toplines | Crosstabs
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