Deviating from Expert Consensus Fantasy Rankings: Raheem Mostert among players being overlooked
ECR stands for "Expert Consensus Ranking", which means the average rank of many members of the fantasy football industry and is usually similar to ADP (which differs from location to location). This will be an ongoing series highlighting some big differences between ECR and my own series. In general, it's usually best to retire to the market, and knowing your league's ADP remains equally important in design, but I rank the following players much higher than the general fantasy community.
Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams (ECR = QB18 vs. DDD = QB10)
He's a below-average real-life quarterback who doesn't add much fantasy with his legs, but Goff is another example of why waiting for a quarterback is so easy. Thanks to Sean McVay, Goff is one season away from releasing a top 5 fantasy QB season (despite a mediocre CPAE of 0.6) and is arguably in an even better position to defend against statistics, Todd Gurley (and) to deploy in 2020 Its 42 roaring TDs in the past three years have disappeared and the Rams are loaded with Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett as reception options. LA was ranked 3rd in pace (situation neutral) in the league last year with one of the most serious offenses and should be represented in a division with the Cardinals, 49ers and Seahawks in a series of high-score games in 2020.
I don't expect Goff to make a giant leap (though he's only 25 years old - just a year older than Josh Allen), but he'll make a massive profit on draft tables with only average game play in this situation. Goff is one of only two quarterbacks in the NFL who has two WR teammates in the top 20 and a TE in the top 10 in the ECR. So his ADP makes no sense.
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Raheem Mostert, San Francisco 49ers (ECR = RB26 vs. DDD = RB17)
Mostert is an unoccupied 28-year-old who has never started an NFL game, only has 178 career opportunities and is part of a committee. So I'm hesitating. But he's also one of the league's fastest defenders, scoring just 792 yards and 12 (!) Touchdowns in the last eight games of the past season (including playoffs) despite a tough schedule. Mostert remains undervalued in fantasy designs, despite taking the lead in a Shanahan system that is one of the heaviest in the league. Matt Breida (and his 142 touches last year) were traded away and a motivated Trent Williams added during the off-season.
Mostert took first place in the DVOA by a large margin last year, while Tevin Coleman was 44th out of 45 qualified backs. Sports Injury Predictor also gives Coleman the highest percentage chance of an RB suffering an injury this season, while Jerick McKinnon hasn't played since 2017 while he has undergone multiple knee surgeries. Mostert gathered in the off-season and expected a higher workload. Although he didn't have much to do last year, he was productive when his targeted position in college was actually a targeted and broad recipient.
Raheem's "Must-Start" just led the NFL in YPC as he approached 25 touchdowns for half a season and remains in the same great situation (SF had the second most frequent rush attempts in the red zone and last season now provided him with the most yards before contact between RBs with less competition for touches. Maybe Mostert would get more fantasy attention if he only had a good game in the spotlight.
[Draft Ranking List 2020: Total | QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | Summer time | Kickers]
Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens (ECR = WR34 vs. DDD = WR19)
Brown may not be able to keep up physically, but he was impressive as a rookie who played underweight and well below 100% while dealing with a foot injury that prevented him from exercising at all. Brown has since removed a troublesome screw in the off-season when he did serious work.
The Ravens seemed to have big plans for Brown as a rookie before injuries slowed him down (he was 11th in the WOPR in the first month) and didn't add much depth in the draft / offseason, but traded Hayden Hurst away. Baltimore will also have a hard time not throwing in 2020. The franchise asked Lamar Jackson (please be sure!) Who he wanted to be his # 1 recipient, and he replied to Hollywood Brown or Jerry Jeudy the following year, and Baltimore didn't hesitate to number 25 for it to spend someone who comes out of the Lisfranc operation. Jackson doesn't throw much on the back, and the team's WR2 is currently Willie Snead. As a result, Brown's ECR appears to be underestimating his projected goal share (he played a season high in snaps and led the team to 11 goals and 126 yards on their playoff loss).
Brown was ranked 8th in fantasy points per route as a rookie and is a major threat (at a serious pace) to a team that PFF rated the # 1 pass blocker unit last year. Brown is also the clear top target for a QB who has just achieved a 24: 1 TD: INT ratio in the last seven games of an MVP winning season, as the defense is primarily focused on figuring out how Attack of the Ravens can be stopped. Brown is a top 20 wideout at a much cheaper price.
Baltimore Raven's recipient Marquise Brown was scratching the surface of his potential during his rookie season. (Photo by Silas Walker / Getty Images)
Jared Cook, saint of New Orleans (ECR = TE9 vs. DDD = TE6)
This may be the smallest discrepancy in position rankings in this series, but overall I've ranked Cook much higher than his ECR / ADP, and I'm closer to getting him to my TE5 than lowering it. Cook recorded 537 yards, scoring seven touchdowns in the last eight games last year. Although you want to see more volume, not all targets are the same, and those from Drew Brees in New Orleans are useful (and worth more) like hitting at Coors Field.
Cook, who deserves a lot of credit for scoring 896 yards and six points with the Raiders the previous year, scored nine touchdowns in 14 games last season (while leading the league in yards per goal and fantasy points per goal) ), although Brees and he both have injuries and a WR teammate preparing a historic season that is unlikely to repeat. Cook will get used to the second year better in New Orleans (in a contract season), and anything but double-digit touchdowns would be a serious disappointment.
Later this week I'll name a few players that I like less than the market.
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