Donald Trump as president would be better than Joe Biden for the stock market: strategist
141 days before the presidential election, Wall Street strategists are starting to think about who would be better for investors: socially divisive President Donald Trump and his favorable corporate tax policy or a commander in chief in Joe Biden with his probably higher tax structures.
Experienced strategist Frances Newton Stacy is the latest to throw her hat into the smoldering debate.
"From a stock market perspective, President Trump would be better," said Stacy, strategy director at Optimal Capital, in The First Trade of Yahoo Finance. "The reason I think - not even in spite of the recent elections - but I think Biden has already talked about raising taxes fairly dramatically to compensate for the debt we've had lately. And I think that market players are looking for lower taxes. I know Trump has put ideas for tax cuts into circulation. "
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Biden was on the other side of the tax spectrum, much to the worry of the bulls.
The former vice president proposed to reverse half of the president's tax cut and raise the statutory tax rate to 28%. Credit Suisse estimates that this change would increase the effective tax rate by 4% to 5% and lower S&P 500's estimated earnings per share by $ 9. In the meantime, Goldman Sachs predicted that Biden's tax plan would result in a 20% lower earnings estimate for 2021.
FILE - In this combination of file photos, former Vice President Joe Biden speaks left in Wilmington, Delaware on March 12, 2020, and President Donald Trump speaks at the White House in Washington on April 5, 2020. The November presidential election is six months away. (AP photo, file)
Stacy added: "I think the market also values a Trump economy more. And I think Trump will push the reopening much more aggressively and Biden will be more careful, and that will affect the markets. "
At least at the moment, however, the thoughts of a heated presidential election play a subordinate role in the here and now. This includes a market here and now that, oddly enough, despite record job losses due to the COVID 19 pandemic, rose 45% from March lows. But optimism is gradually waning as COVID-19 cases in key countries increase when economies reopen.
The S&P 500 fueled 5.9% on June 11 in a bruise on Wall Street. The fear of a deeper correction continued until trading started this week.
"A record run, an exaggerated excitement from small traders, the Nasdaq with 10,000, historically high multipliers and seasonality could be a reason why a withdrawal here could be perfectly normal," wrote strategists at LPL Financial. “If you're optimistic after a 45% rally, one of the best things to do is see prices reset here in the coming months. We would be a buyer of weaknesses and would use this as an opportunity for a longer-term price increase. "
Brian Sozzi is the editor-in-chief and co-moderator of The First Trade at Yahoo Finance. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn.
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