Increasing number of Republican states projected to see a spike in coronavirus deaths
According to a Yahoo Finance analysis of the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) coronavirus death model, an increasing number of Republican states are forecast to report the highest deaths related to COVID-19.
Earlier analysis of fatality forecasts in all 50 states and in Washington, DC showed that eight of the ten largest states with the largest estimated deaths had Republican governors. That number has now been increased to nine.
In addition, the analysis showed that the Republicans govern around 70% of the country with the highest growth in death projections.
Yahoo Finance has reviewed current death toll estimates through October 1 and compared them to the number of deaths recorded in May. For consistency, the analysis uses IHME numbers for all data.
The top state on the list is Texas, jumping up from its previous No. 17 spot on the list. The projected number of coronavirus deaths represents an increase of 1,204% from the number of deaths recorded up to May 8.
According to IHME, around 13,800 people are expected to die in Texas by fall. IHME recorded 2,147 deaths on June 20 - more than twice as many as in May (1,053). The number also represents a large increase from the originally projected increase in death. In May, Texas was expected to see a 144% increase in deaths by August.
The current forecasts are 738% above the original forecast.
Texas was one of the first states to reopen. Texas Governor Greg Abbott, in the face of the alarming increase in the number of daily coronaviruses, has decided to "pause" at reopening and has banned election operations to suppress the virus in the state of Lone Star.
Next on the list is Arizona, which is expected to see a 1,120% increase in deaths from the May reported deaths in the state by October. Arizona previously took first place on the list.
Arizona governor Doug Ducey has stopped blocking the state, but has asked citizens to stay at home.
Arkansas, Florida, Utah, Oregon, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Nebraska and Missouri are also on the list of the top 10 countries.
Oregon is the only top 10 country with democratic leadership.
There are over 2.4 million coronavirus cases in the United States (graphic: David Foster / Yahoo Finance)
All of the countries that hit the top 10 have more than 500% more deaths than expected in May. In some states, the recent increase in the death toll also means a sharp increase over the previously recorded rates.
In other words, thanks to the reopening, IHME's death toll forecasts for some countries have been revised upward significantly. The new forecasts from Oregon are 800% above the previous forecasts. The new death toll in Arkansas means an increase of 600%.
However, according to Yahoo Finance, democratic leaders are much better off than their republican counterparts. Seven of the ten states below have democratic governors.
At the bottom of the list is New York, where only 20% more deaths are expected than the number of deaths recorded in May. While New York is among the highest in the country in terms of absolute deaths, the state's death toll has remained relatively unchanged.
Below are Vermont, Michigan, New Jersey, Connecticut, Idaho, Massachusetts, Louisiana, Colorado and Oklahoma. In all states except Oklahoma, the number of coronavirus deaths is expected to increase by less than 100% by October compared to May.
This week, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut have quarantined visitors from countries with a significantly high COVID-19 content. Many of these states, including Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, Washington, Utah and Texas, have hit the top 10 on Yahoo Finance's list of the largest coronavirus deaths.
Kristin Myers is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter.
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