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Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.)'s side deal with Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) to enact permitting reform before the end of the year is on life support as Republicans seek to give the legislature a major victory withholding could aid his potential re-election in 2024.
Manchin is in talks with GOP peers to reach an agreement to approve reforms in the Lame Duck session, but Republicans say things are on the upswing since they won his West Virginia Senate seat as a top pickup -View opportunity in the next elections.
"It's a tough task, but we're still exchanging ideas," said Senator Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), one of the top Republican negotiators for approving reforms.
Passing the permit reform bill before January or even next year may depend on Manchin running for a fourth term. Former President Trump won West Virginia two years ago with 68.6 percent of the vote.
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Manchin, 75, told The Hill he "runs every day" but declined to say when he would officially announce his decision on the 2024 election.
He said he expects a tough race when he runs again.
"I've never run without a fight. I've always expected tough competition," he said. "I'm excited to just see the fireworks on the Republican primary. I think there's going to be a lot of people in [the GOP Senate primary]."
Manchin said he will "put himself in a position to help my state and my country as best he can" but has no plans to make an announcement about his political future anytime soon.
Ford O'Connell, a Republican strategist, said permitting the Mountain Valley Pipeline, a key element of Manchin's permit reform law, would be a big win in West Virginia, where fossil fuels are the "lifeblood" of the state economy.
Manchin is already under attack from likely Republican challengers for voting in favor of the inflation-cutting bill. Passing licensing reform as a reward for that tough vote would give him political protection.
"This is an opportunity to actually win his seat in 2024," O'Connell said, adding that "it would be political misconduct" to give Manchin a victory in approving reforms.
The Mountain Valley Pipeline would transport natural gas more than 303 miles from northwestern West Virginia to southern Virginia and would create an estimated 3,700 construction jobs and $1.58 billion in direct expenditures in West Virginia.
Brian Darling, a Republican strategist and former Senate adviser, said, "I don't think Republicans should give Manchin any victories."
"It would be a major political fiddle to let a flimsy permitting reform bill through and give Manchin a win as he stares at a very difficult re-election," he added.
Manchin suffered a setback last week when Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), the senior Republican on the House Appropriations Committee, said there was "zero chance" of adding appropriation reform to the annual Defense Appropriations Act.
But Manchin argues that approving national defense reforms is crucial at a time when oil supplies from Saudi Arabia and other OPEC member countries are becoming less reliable.
Saudi Arabia said Monday that OPEC may cut production again to shore up falling oil prices.
"I think we all agree that we need to approve reforms," ​​Manchin said just before the Thanksgiving break. “We need more pipelines, we need to be able to produce and bring products to market.
"This is about national security, energy independence," he added. "I hope everyone realizes that we have to do something."
Manchin will continue to play a crucial role in next year's Senate, which will be split 50-50 or 51-49 depending on the outcome of Georgia's Dec. 6 runoff, with Democrats having a narrow majority in both cases due to Vice being the deciding one Vote by President Harris.
Mike Plante, a West Virginia-based Democratic strategist, said Manchin appears to be preparing for another Senate nomination.
“My guess is that he could very well do that. He kept raising money. When he's home in the state, he doesn't call. He's everywhere, doing all sorts of things - meeting people, going out to events. He certainly wasn't braking," he said. "I hope he will stand for re-election and if he does I think he will win."
Manchin reported more than $9 million in cash in his campaign account at the end of September.
Schumer told reporters he still hopes to get at least 10 Republican votes for Manchin's permit reform bill as part of the commitment he made in July to get the West Virginia senator's vote for comprehensive tax reform, climate spending and a reform bill for to obtain prescription drugs.
"As you saw the last time we tried, there weren't enough Republican votes. I'm working with Sen. Manchin to see what we can accomplish," he said last week.
Manchin agreed to pull his approving reform proposal off the ground in late September when it became clear that we could not garner enough Republican votes to resolve procedural objections to its attachment to a short-term funding bill.
A Republican Senate adviser said it would take a "miracle" for Manchin's bill to pass before January.
"I think it's kind of a odyssey," the source said, adding that Manchin didn't take enough Republican input into the legislation. "I'd be shocked if anything actually comes out of the approval process."
"[Manchin] is desperately trying to get something done because he made this deal," the source said, referring to Manchin's deal with Schumer to vote for the reconciliation package this summer.
He couldn't include his permit reform bill in the package, which was protected by special rules from a GOP filibuster, because it couldn't get the green light from the Senator.
But Manchin stressed when announcing his deal in July that President Biden, Schumer and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) "are committed to moving forward with a series of common sense reforms this fall" that will help build energy infrastructure would accelerate.
That deal has now been further complicated by Pelosi's decision to step down as Speaker of the Democratic House of Representatives. There is no guarantee that her expected successor, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), will honor the deal.
Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.), the chairman of the House Committee on Natural Resources, sent a letter Monday to Pelosi and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) to pass legislation this year.”
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Joe Manchin
American politician and businessman (born 1947)
Chuck Schumer
American politician

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