Martha McSally trails Mark Kelly by double digits in Arizona Senate race: poll
Senator Martha McSally, R-Ariz., Listens during the Senate Armed Forces Committee hearing on Tuesday, December 3, 2019 about privatized military housing. Bill Clark / CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images
Arizona was a deep red state for many years, closely identified with Senator Barry Goldwater and later Senator John McCain. But Arizona has become a swing state in the past few years. And if a New York Times / Siena College poll published October 5 is correct, Arizona could end up with two Democratic Senators in 2021 - and President Donald Trump could lose Arizona's electoral votes to former Vice President Joe Biden.
According to the poll, incumbent Republican Senator Martha McSally is 11% behind Democratic challenger Mark Kelly in the 2020 US Senate race in Arizona. That poll is even worse for McSally than a Times / Siena poll published in September: That poll found Kelly is 8% ahead. And if Kelly defeats McSally in November, a Democrat will take over the Senate seat once held by Goldwater and later by McCain.
The Times / Siena poll found that Biden is 9% ahead in the 2020 Arizona presidential race. If Biden won Arizona's 11 votes, he would be the first Democrat to win a presidential race in that southwestern state since Bill Clinton in 1996.
The Times / Siena poll follows a USA Today / Suffolk poll released Oct. 2nd that found Kelly McSally leading by 9%.
Arizona already has a Democratic US Senator: Kyrsten Sinema, who defeated McSally in the medium term in 2018. Sinema took over the seat of Republican Senator Jeff Flake, a hardcore conservative who at times was very critical of Trump and supported Biden in the president's race. And McSally landed in the Senate in 2019 after Republican Governor Doug Ducey named her as Arizona's alternative seat in the U.S. Senate.
New York Times' Jonathan Martin, speaking on the Times / Siena poll, said, "The same constituencies that are raising Mr Biden - women, younger people and Latino voters - are driving Mr Kelly. Both Democrats benefit even more Alienation Moderate Arizona Republicans feel opposed to the tough Trump-led party. "
Martin also notes that in Arizona, Trump's "standing among women voters and independents in the state has declined since his victory four years ago - and interest in third-party candidates appears to be significantly lower this year."
Recently, Trump supporters in Arizona were furious when John McCain's widow, Republican Cindy McCain, endorsed Biden - which they saw as another kick in the teeth after Flake's endorsement of Biden. Cindy McCain did not speak out in favor of Arizona's race in the US Senate, however.
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