Russia And China Are Looking To Tap Afghanistan’s $1 Trillion Resource Reserves

“Nature abhors a vacuum” is a well-known maxim in science. It means that empty spaces are unnatural because they violate the laws of physics.
The saying could also be applied to Afghanistan, where the end of a 20-year war with the United States has created a power vacuum eager to be filled by another world power (s).
As the Taliban recapture the government of the country known to have hosted Al-Qaeda, the terrorist group that planned and carried out the 2001 attacks in the United States, Afghanistan's neighbors stand ready to take advantage of it.
Bordered by China in the east, Iran in the west and Russia in the north, the landlocked country is known as the "graveyard of empires". In three Anglo-Afghan wars in the 19th and early 20th centuries, Britain failed to extend its control of Afghanistan from its base in neighboring India and oppose Russian influence there. Six decades later, the former Soviet Union invaded and occupied the country for ten years before retreating with a humiliating defeat in 1989.
"Russia is clearly interested in a consolidated Afghanistan under stable rule," NBC News quoted Fyodor Lukyanov, a leading Russian foreign policy expert who heads the Moscow Foreign and Defense Policy Council. "For Moscow it is not so important who is in charge in Kabul."
Iran nearly went to war with the Taliban in 1998 after killing 10 Iranian diplomats, but has since improved relations with the group; it is also one of Afghanistan's largest trading partners.
China sees the opportunity to exploit potentially lucrative oil and gas and mining projects that have been cleaned up or delayed due to safety concerns, a lack of infrastructure, and technical issues. The country reportedly has $ 1 trillion in reserves of minerals, including copper, iron, lithium and rare earths (more on this below).
Beijing recently said it would provide the Taliban with $ 31 million in emergency aid, including food and 3 million doses of Covid-19 vaccine.
All three countries fear that the withdrawal of US forces could wreak havoc in the region and entangle them in Afghanistan's internal affairs. They are also concerned that terrorism will re-breed under the protection of the Taliban.
The country is the deadliest for terrorism on earth as both Islamic State and Al Qaeda are present there.
"[Terrorists] see Afghan territory as a base to transfer their activities to the Central Asian states, to the Chinese Xinjiang, north of Iran, to India," said Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of the Russian Security Council, in an interview with the Russian newspaper Izvestia in August.
China is concerned about the infiltration of extremism into the western Xinjiang region, where the government has arrested hundreds of thousands of Uyghurs and other predominantly Muslim ethnic minorities. Beijing called on the Taliban to cut ties with terrorist groups.
China is aiming for $ 1 trillion worth of minerals
China not only wants regional stability (140 people were killed and hundreds injured in clashes between Muslim Ugurs and Han Chinese in Xinjiang in 2009. Beijing uses this incident as a justification for the oppression of the Muslim minority), but is also striving for Afghanistan's natural resources, which despite new headlines may not be as rich as advertised.
(A Bloomberg article, one of several similar ones, states that in 2010 US officials estimated that Afghanistan had $ 1 trillion in unexplored mineral reserves critical to the global green energy transition. But as Bloomberg notes, they did Weak infrastructure in the inland, together with poor security, hampers efforts to mine and recreate the reserves.)
"With the US withdrawal, Beijing can offer what Kabul needs most: political impartiality and economic investment," the article quoted a senior colonel in the People's Liberation Army from 2003-2020 who wrote a comment in the New York Times. "Afghanistan, on the other hand, has what China values ​​most: infrastructure and industrial construction opportunities - areas in which China's capabilities are arguably unmatched - and access to unused mineral deposits valued at $ 1 trillion."
Remember, China is actively promoting its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a $ 900 billion program to open channels between China and its neighbors, primarily through infrastructure investments.
The "Belt" part of the Belt and Road Initiative, which was introduced by President Xi Jinping in 2013, refers to a network of road, rail and oil / natural gas pipelines that will run along the major Eurasian land bridges : China-Mongolia-Russia, China-Central and West Asia, China-Indochina-Peninsula, China-Pakistan, Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar. They extend from Xi’an in central China through Central Asia to Moscow, Rotterdam and Venice.
The "Road" is a network of ports and other coastal infrastructure projects from South and Southeast Asia to East Africa and the northern Mediterranean.
China belt and road
A geopolitical expert for Asia says that while the BRI fulfills a number of economic goals for China, including expanding its supply chains, gaining access to overseas labor, and preventing layoffs when companies run out of domestic infrastructure to build, the overall goal is however the regional influence is.
Richard Javad Heydarian, author of Asia's New Battlefield: The USA, China, and the Struggle for the Western Pacific, writes:
“Above all, however, it enables China to tie up valuable mineral resources and transform nations into long-term debtors via the Eurasian land mass and the Indian Ocean. A leading rating agency warned [in 2017] that the [One Belt One Road] OBOR "is primarily driven by China's efforts to expand its global influence" where "real infrastructure needs and commercial logic may be secondary to political motivations" .
The result is what one observer aptly referred to as "debt trap diplomacy," as some nations end up accumulating unsustainable debts to China.
China's idea is for Chinese state-owned companies to build the infrastructure that will be paid for by the participating countries. Those who cannot afford it, and most are, are offered cheap loans and credits. It is no different than banks, which offer rock-bottom interest rates to homeowners whose income is below what is needed to finance a mortgage.
In 2017, when Sri Lanka failed to pay its Chinese creditors, Beijing took control of Colombo, a strategic port, through a 99-year lease. By the end of 2018, China owed nearly a quarter of Sri Lanka's external debt - the money accepted for roughly $ 8 billion worth of BRI-planned ports and highways. Read more here
In the context of China's Belt and Road Initiative, Afghanistan has enormous economic and strategic value. While Western institutional investors would rightly shy away from the country, especially now that the Taliban are back in power, Chinese leaders see Beijing as an opportunity to invest in the country's minerals sector, which will then have Chinese-funded infrastructure that about $ 60 billion in projects in neighboring Pakistan, according to the Bloomberg article mentioned above.
It should be noted that China has already dipped its mineral search tip into the turbulent waters of Afghanistan. In 2007, the state-owned Metallurgical Corp of China received an offer of nearly $ 3 billion to develop the country's largest copper mine, Mes Agnak near Kabul, with estimated reserves of six million tons.
However, due to delays ranging from safety concerns to the discovery of historical artifacts, the project has yet to go into production and there is no rail access or power plant. (The Hajigak iron ore project, the only other deposit that currently has the prospect of a mine, has also got nowhere)
China is taking the right steps
Despite these difficulties, the experience of the mining industry shows that China is caging the world's mineral resources, how far the Chinese will go to ensure that their ever-growing demand for mined raw materials is met.
While iron ore and copper have been the hot targets of overseas acquisitions by Chinese companies to feed an economy that saw double-digit growth through 2015, the Chinese have also left gold, nickel, tin, coking coal and oil sands behind. More recently, the most sought-after metals are those that are contributing to the global shift from fossil fuels to vehicle electrification. This meant a hunt for lithium, cobalt, graphite, copper, and rare earths - metals used in electric vehicles, of which China has become the world's leading manufacturer.
Electric vehicles use a lot of copper, four times as much as a normal vehicle, and China has not shy away from replenishing its copper reserves to meet expected demand.
Two large Peruvian copper mines are owned by Chinese companies. The state-owned Chinese Chinalco owns the Toromocho copper mine, while the La Bambas mine is a joint venture between the operator MMG (62.5%), a subsidiary of Guoxin International Investment Co. Ltd (22.5%) and CITIC Metal Co. Ltd ( 15%) is. ). The China-backed Mirador Mine in Ecuador opened in 2019.
Four of the five large copper projects currently in the pipeline either have off-take agreements with non-Western countries (South Korea and China) or the mines are partially owned by Japanese companies, who have a say in where some of the copper that is mined is certainly. (i.e. Japan)
At Ivanhole Mines' massive Kamoa-Kaukula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which has just gone online, 100% of initial production will be split between two Chinese companies, one of which owns 39.6% of the joint venture project.
China long ago blocked much of Africa's vast resources. Within a decade, the number of large mines or mineral processing plants with China-based companies rose from a handful in 2006 to over 120 in 2015.
We know from previous articles that China has been extremely active in the acquisition of ownership or partial ownership of foreign lithium mines and paint purchase agreements.
China has included rare earths as well, of course, and is the major player in a number of critical mineral markets, including cobalt, graphite, manganese and vanadium.
For years, the United States and Canada have not bothered to look for these minerals and build mines. Globalization brought with it the mentality that all countries are free traders and friends. Dirty mining and processing? NIMBY. Let China do it, let the Democratic Republic of the Congo do it, let whomever do it.
China saw the opportunity to knock and opened the door by taking control of almost all REE processing and magnet manufacturing within about 10 years.
As part of its US-China trade war strategy, China has promised to restrict exports of these raw materials, which are vital to America's defense, power electronics, and auto industries.
Currently, almost all graphite processing takes place in China due to the high availability of graphite, poor environmental standards and low costs.
Over half of the world's cobalt - a key component of electric vehicle batteries - is mined as a by-product of copper production in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). In a $ 9 billion joint venture with the government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, China obtained rights to North Kivu's vast copper and cobalt resources in exchange for providing $ 6 billion in infrastructure, including roads, Dams, hospitals, schools and rail links.
Related: China's Unsuccessful Attempt to Lower Oil Prices
China controls approximately 85% of the world's cobalt supply, including an off-take agreement with Glencore, the largest producer of the mineral, to sell cobalt hydroxide to Chinese chemical company GEM. China Molybdenum is the largest shareholder in the large DRC copper-cobalt mine, Tenke Fungurume, which supplies cobalt to the Kokkola refinery in Finland. China imports 98% of its cobalt from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and produces about half of the world's refined cobalt.
Most of the metal produced under these purchase agreements will never be marketed anywhere other than China. Those metals that do this can stop supplying them anytime the Chinese want.
China's modus operandi often consists of building mines in exchange for providing infrastructure that supports local people and wins the favor of local people, such as schools, health clinics, roads, and clean water systems.
In recent years, the apparent resource grabbing by China in the former backyard of the United States as defined by the "Monroe Doctrine" has included:
Shandong Gold has teamed up with Barrick Gold to acquire a 50 percent stake in the Veladero gold mine on the Chile-Argentina border for $ 960 million.
Two large Peruvian copper mines are owned by Chinese companies. The state-owned Chinese Chinalco owns the Toromocho copper mine, while the La Bambas mine is a joint venture between the operator MMG (62.5%), a subsidiary of Guoxin International Investment Co. Ltd (22.5%) and CITIC Metal Co. Ltd ( 15.0%). ).
In 2018, China's Tianqi Lithium acquired a 23.7% stake in Chilean state-owned lithium miner SQM, despite regulatory concerns that the $ 4 billion peg would give Tianqi near monopoly in the lithium market and unprecedented pricing power .
The Chinese are also investing in early-stage lithium games. In 2018, Bacanora Lithium, which has a lithium project in Mexico, announced that NextView Capital, a Chinese institutional fund manager, had acquired a 19.89% stake in exchange for a lithium battery purchase agreement.
China's latest foray into the acquisition of minerals from overseas concerns Indonesian nickel. The country is using Indonesia's ban on raw nickel exports to monopolize the nickel market.
Tsingshan, the world's largest stainless steel manufacturer, plans to build an Indonesian plant to produce nickel-cobalt salts from nickel laterite ores. Using the previously uneconomical high pressure acid leaching (HPAL) technology, Tsingshan will convert class 2 laterite deposits into class 1 metal for the electric vehicle battery market, according to Tsingshan.
In April 2021, Chinese battery maker CNGR announced it would purchase nickel mats, which are used to make chemicals for EV batteries, from Tsingshan's $ 243 million smelting project on the Indonesian island of Sulawesi.
A month later, China's Lygend Mining and $ 1 billion nickel and cobalt smelting operation became the first project in the Southeast Asian country to reach full production.
The company is the latest among several cobalt-nickel HPAL plants in Indonesia that are in the spotlight as a source of supply for the emerging electric vehicle battery sector. The country banned nickel ore exports from early 2020 to establish a fully integrated battery industry domestically.
Related: Why Bank of America Think Oil Prices are heading towards $ 100
But China doesn't care. The aim is to build a bridgehead for nickel processing at the world's largest nickel producer, which uses Chinese technology to process class 2 nickel laterite deposits into class 1 metal for batteries. Then sell its nickel chemicals to battery companies in either China or Belt-and-Road countries as the company continues on its path to complete global metals domination.
Failure in US mining
It is interesting to speculate about how Afghanistan could have turned out very differently for the United States if it had tried to strengthen the country economically by doing what China is doing and developing its natural resources. Instead, the US gave priority to the military solution by first bombing the mountainous Taliban stronghold of Tora Bora to evict bin Laden and then appointing diplomat Paul Bremer to oversee the US occupation. A recent Frontline documentary describes how Bremer sacked the entire Afghan army, along with everyone who worked with the Taliban government that was deployed in the 1990s. The result was a large contingent of unemployed young men who turned out to be recruits for the anti-American uprising that would plague the United States for the next two decades.
In fact, arguably the biggest mistake the US made in Afghanistan is not having the vision to rebuild civil society through the development of natural resources - an obvious path to prosperity - part of a larger trend, the ability to mine mines in the Abroad and in other countries to gamble home.
Years of neglect of its critical metal supplies catches up with the United States as the demand for raw materials to build a new green economy that rejects fossil fuels increases.
During the 2020 election campaign, Candidate Joe Biden said he supports domestic production of metals needed to make electric vehicles, solar panels and other green technologies, and supports bipartisan efforts to establish a domestic supply chain for lithium, copper, rare earths, nickel and others promote strategic materials that the US imports from China and other countries.
However, since his presidency, Biden and his Democratic Party have not been friends with the mining industry. On his first day in office, Biden closed the Keystone XL pipeline, which was built during construction, to deliver oil sands crude from Alberta to US Gulf Coast refineries, relieving the oil glut in North America that depressed oil prices has price for Western Canadian Select. The continuation of the pipeline would have been a great blessing for the Canadian producers.
In late February, the Biden government announced it would conduct a state review of U.S. supply chains to end the country's reliance on China and other adversaries for essential goods.
A look at mine production data from the US Geological Survey shows how little of this material the US is mining.
Lithium production
2020 global lithium production. Source: USGS
Nickel production
2020 worldwide nickel production. Source: USGS
For example, in 2020 (and earlier) the only lithium production in the United States came from Albemarle's brine operation Silver Peak in Nevada. The actual amount was withheld by the company, but is nowhere near the three leading producers Australia (40,000 tons), Chile (18,000 tons) and China (14,000 tons). As for the lithium resources currently identified, the USGS notes that these have increased significantly as a result of continued exploration, but of the total of 86 million tons, only 7.9 million tons were found in the US and 2.9 million tons in Canada.
No natural graphite was mined in the U.S. in 2020, which is needed to make spherical graphite for the anode of EV batteries. The world's inferred resources of minable graphite exceed 800 million tons, but domestic sources are "relatively small," according to USGS.
US mines produced only 16,000 tons of nickel last year, compared to 760,000 tons in Indonesia, 320,000 tons in the Philippines, and 280,000 tons in Russia, the top three Ni miners. Canada managed to spend 150,000 tons.
The US relies on foreign countries for over 50% of its supply of 46 minerals and metals that are vital to America's supply chains, including 17 of which the land is 100% important.
It's hard to imagine the US can deliver on its new clean energy agenda without either a significant spike in critical metals imports, which frankly may not be possible in current market conditions, or a strategy of its own to drive it up north explore and dismantle America.
The Democrats' propensity for mining was exposed through two rulings earlier this month.
A US House of Representatives committee voted to prevent Rio Tinto from building its Resolution copper mine in Arizona. If passed, the bill, which is part of a broader $ 3.5 trillion budget package, would reverse a 2014 decision by President Obama and Congress that Rio had land in exchange for land owned by Rio With more than 50 billion pounds of federally owned copper allowed to develop nearby. The land swap agreement was approved by President Trump before leaving office, but Biden overturned his decision. The Resolution mine could meet about 25% of US copper demand.
"This move seems to contradict what the Biden government is trying to fight climate change," said Mila Besic, the mayor of the nearby Superior. "I hope the full house won't let that language stay in the final bill."
Another major U.S. mining project, the Pebble Mine in Alaska, developed by Northern Dynasty Minerals, is also moving on thin ice thanks to the Biden government. The Justice Department is urging a federal court to overturn a 2019 EPA ruling that removed Bristol Bay, a major Alaskan watershed and home to a large sockeye salmon fishery.
If the court approves the motion, the EPA would resume its previous efforts to protect the Bristol Bay watershed and place a significant roadblock in front of the Pebble Limited Partnership - four years after parent company Northern Dynasty and the EPA reached an agreement on the Construction would have allowed the huge copper-gold mine to move forward.
In development for more than a decade, if approved, Pebble would be North America's largest new mine, with a resource estimate of 57 billion pounds of copper, 3.4 billion pounds of molybdenum, 71 million ounces of gold and 345 million ounces of silver.
These two decisions, against the Resolution copper mine and the Pebble copper-gold mine, are part of a democratic strategy to ensure that domestic critical minerals fed into North American supply chains meet sustainability criteria.
According to Metal Tech News, the White House is demanding Washington D.C. lawmakers to create a new regulatory framework for mining with stringent environmental standards for the life of the mine, from development to reclamation.
“We encourage Congress to develop laws to replace obsolete mining laws, including the General Mining Law (GML) of 1872, which governs findable minerals (including nickel) on state, the Materials Disposal Act of 1947, to remove minerals found on state and the Mineral Land Lease Act of 1920, ”wrote the government of Biden. "These should be updated to include stricter environmental standards, current tax reforms, better enforcement, inspection and liability requirements, and clear requirements for reclamation planning."
Note: The United States already has very strong environmental protection through the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). Notoriously, the law can take seven to ten years to obtain a U.S. mining permit, compared to two years in countries with similar regulations like Australia. It is therefore not surprising that mining companies given the choice of mining domestically or overseas would opt for the latter.
The White House sees these allied countries with more efficient mine permit procedures as increasingly important and safer suppliers of minerals and metals in American supply chains, according to Metal Tech News.
The Biden administration is also indirectly building roadblocks to domestic mining, through liberal policies designed to encourage countries to stop practices the White House dislikes.
In the latest episode of trade tensions between the world's two largest economies, the US now officially blocks imports of solar panels from China over concerns about forced labor.
The implications of such a move could be enormous; Solar power is currently the fastest growing source of new power generation in the United States.
According to the Department of Energy, solar energy accounts for 3% of electricity produced in America today, and the Biden government aims to increase that percentage to more than 40% by 2035.
However, solar panel production is dominated by China, and the import ban could pose a new challenge in bringing renewable energy to US households.
According to solar industry analyst Philip Shen, solar panels arrested at the US border from a single manufacturer can generate 100 megawatts of electricity, enough to power about 29,000 households a year.
When we add up all of the affected manufacturers, we see a serious disruption to many planned solar projects that could completely undo the Biden government's plans to develop clean energy such as solar and wind power.
One would think Biden's $ 2 trillion climate plan (which is based on the accumulation of clean energy minerals like copper, lithium, and nickel) will go smoothly as the Democrats have a (if razor-thin) majority in both houses of Congress. But as we know from the last two administrations, passing laws in the deeply divided US Congress is difficult at best and impossible at worst. The Dems and GOP have opposed every major piece of legislation since Biden's inauguration in January this year.
Plus, Biden can't even get members of his own party to agree with him. CNN reported earlier this month that Joe Manchin, the Democrat who holds the swing vote in the Senate, is calling for a "break" from Biden's $ 3.5 trillion bill, which is much of the president's agenda.
The bill could be approved by the Senate this month by a simple majority over the reconciliation process, but Manchin's position throws a blow in the Democrats' plans. The moderate senator says he can approve the 3.5-ton bill "or even close to that amount of additional spending" without fully assessing the impact on the economy.
It's not just the Democrats who have shown their ignorance when it comes to a strategy for sourcing important minerals. While Trump was obviously more into natural resource extraction than Biden, including promoting Pebble development, helping U.S. miners, and helping the Keystone XL pipeline, there was the highly questionable Energy Resource Governance Initiative in 2019.
Under the direction of then Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, ERGI was formed as part of a government-wide plan of action to reduce US reliance on imported critical minerals.
That sounds good, but what is worrying is ERGI's mandate to share mining expertise with the countries in the group. So the United States will help countries like the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Namibia, and Brazil - all of which China has been wooed and "married" through numerous mineral purchase agreements and credits - to discover and develop mineral resources of lithium, cobalt, and copper, presumably so that they can sell more of these minerals to their most important benefactor, China!
In return, these developing (ie poor) countries are accepting China's offer to build hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure to bring them closer to Beijing and further away from the United States.
Bisher sind den USA 10 Länder beigetreten: Kanada, Australien, Botswana, Peru, Argentinien, Brasilien, Demokratische Republik Kongo, Namibia, die Philippinen und Sambia. For real?
Immer wieder haben die USA beim Bergbau die falschen Schritte unternommen, meist unter dem Banner eines verstärkten Umweltschutzes. Letzteres ist offensichtlich eine wichtige Überlegung, wenn Aufsichtsbehörden, Regierungsbeamte und Politiker gebeten werden, über die Angemessenheit einer neuen Mine zu entscheiden. Ist es jedoch nicht möglich, Mineralien mit den verfügbaren Technologien gemäß den höchsten Standards der Eindämmung von Feststoffen und Flüssigkeiten sowie der Luftreinhaltung zu extrahieren und zu verarbeiten? Müssen sich Bergbau und Umwelt also immer gegenseitig ausschließen? Warum können sie nicht nebeneinander existieren?
China hat gelinde gesagt niedrigere Umweltstandards und hat damit einen robusten Bergbausektor entwickelt, der in mehreren Metallmärkten weltweit führend ist. China ist mit Abstand der größte Produzent von Seltenen Erden, kontrolliert etwa 85 % des weltweiten Kobaltangebots und verarbeitet fast 100 % des weltweiten Graphits. Staatliche chinesische Unternehmen haben die Welt nach Mineralvorkommen abgesucht, die dazu beitragen werden, die unersättliche Nachfrage zu befriedigen, und haben entweder das vollständige oder teilweise Eigentum an Minen in Afrika, Südamerika, Australien, den Vereinigten Staaten und Kanada erlangt. Chinesische Bergbauunternehmen haben sich in einigen der riskantesten, aber potenziell lukrativsten Rechtsordnungen niedergelassen, einschließlich der Demokratischen Republik Kongo, die immer am unteren Ende des Index der Attraktivität von Bergbauinvestitionen des Fraser Institute rangiert.
Chinas Modus Operandi besteht oft darin, Minen im Austausch für die Bereitstellung einer Infrastruktur zu bauen, die die lokale Bevölkerung unterstützt und die Gunst der lokalen Bevölkerung gewinnt, wie Schulen, Gesundheitskliniken, Straßen und saubere Wassersysteme. Im Rahmen seiner Belt-and-Road-Initiative stellt China im Austausch für regionalen Einfluss und die Erschließung neuer Märkte für Rohmetalle und Fertigwaren Kredite für neue Infrastrukturen zur Verfügung, die BRI-Mitgliedsländer verschulden.
Die Tatsache, dass die Vereinigten Staaten trotz gemeldeter geschätzter Mineralreserven im Wert von 1 Billion US-Dollar in Afghanistan in 20 Jahren keine einzige Mine erschlossen haben, während Peking jetzt bei dem Gedanken, dies als Erster zu sein, sabbert, ist nur das jüngste Beispiel dafür China „essen unser Mittagessen“, um Präsident Joe Biden zu zitieren.
Die USA sind für über 50 % ihrer Versorgung mit 46 Mineralien und Metallen, die für die amerikanischen Lieferketten von entscheidender Bedeutung sind, vom Ausland abhängig, darunter 17, bei denen das Land zu 100 % von Bedeutung ist.
Wie kann man diese Abhängigkeit endgültig beenden?
Der erste Schritt besteht darin, anzuerkennen, dass wir diese Metalle haben, wir müssen sie nicht von China, der Demokratischen Republik Kongo, Russland oder anderen ausländischen Produzenten kaufen, wir können sie direkt hier abbauen und veredeln.
Als nächstes verbessern wir unser Explorationsspiel – und niemand ist besser darin als kanadische Junior-Ressourcenunternehmen –, damit wir die Lagerstätten finden und erschließen können, die die nächsten Minen der Welt werden, um die neue elektrifizierte, dekarbonisierte Weltwirtschaft zu versorgen.
Von Richard Mills
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