The week in polls: Biden hits double-digit lead in national average, surges in Florida, Michigan
The first week of polls, conducted primarily after President Donald Trump's contract with COVID-1, generally didn't do much to bolster the president's hopes for re-election.
Biden continued to lead Trump in 10 out of 11 swing states (despite Georgia being a virtual tie) - and he built his lead in seven of those states, including big wins in Florida, Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
Nationally, Biden rose 2 percentage points to a lead of more than 10 points, according to TODAY's U.S. average, which is based on survey averages computed by RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight. For comparison: The Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton was at the top four years ago with 6.2 points at this point in time.
Last week: Trump trails in 10 out of 11 swing states, according to the plural, Biden won 1st debate
USA TODAY average of the averages: Biden 52.1%, Trump 42.0% (Biden +10.1)
Last week: Biden 50.8%, Trump 42.7% (Biden +8.1)
Net change: Biden +2.0
RCP: Biden 51.9%, Trump 42.1%
Thirty-five: Biden 52.2%, Trump 41.9%
At this point in 2016: Clinton +6.2
Should We Believe the Polls ?: Polls Show Joe Biden leads Donald Trump, but after 2016 ...
Swing state averages
Arizona: Biden +3.3
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.5%, Trump 45.2%.
Last week: Biden 48.6%, Trump 45.3% (Biden +3.3)
Net change: none
Florida: Biden +4.0
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.5%, Trump 44.5%.
Last week: Biden 47.9%, Trump 45.5%
Net change: Biden +1.6
Georgia: Biden +0.2
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 47.1%, Trump 46.9%
Last week: Biden 47.0%, Trump 46.5%
Net change: Trump +0.3
Michigan: Biden +7.3
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.5%, Trump 43.2%.
Last week: Biden 49.7%, Trump 43.8%
Net change: Biden +1.4
Minnesota: Biden +9.3
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.4%, Trump 41.1%
Last week: Biden 50.3%, Trump 41.5%
Net change: Biden +0.5
Nevada: Biden +6.4
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.2%, Trump 43.8%.
Last week: Biden 49.2%, Trump 43.5%
Net change: Biden +0.7
North Carolina: Biden +2.2
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.7%, Trump 46.5%.
Last week: Biden 47.5%, Trump 46.5%
Net change: Biden +1.2
Ohio: Biden +0.7
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 47.0%, Trump 46.3%.
Last week: Biden 48.1%, Trump 46.6%
Net change: Trump +0.8
Pennsylvania: Biden +7.2
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 51.0%, Trump 43.8%
Last week: Biden 50.4%, Trump 44.2%
Net change: Biden +1.0
Texas: Trump +3.0
USA TODAY average of averages: Trump 48.8%, Biden 45.8%
Last week: Trump 48.3%, Biden 45.5%
Net change: Trump +0.2
Wisconsin: Biden +6.3
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.9%, Trump 43.6%
Last week: Biden 50.2%, Trump 44.1%
Net change: Biden +0.2
More: These 6 swing states are central to running in the White House. But what are the keys to winning them?
Colorado: Hickenlooper stays ahead of Gardner
Polls between incumbent GOP Senator Cory Gardner and former Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper have been relatively sparse, but polls conducted have consistently found Hickenlooper to be ahead of the curve, despite being between 5 and 18 percentage points since May.
A new poll from 9NEWS / Colorado Politics, conducted October 1-6 by SurveyUSA, continued that trend and found Hickenlooper 9 points (48% -39%) ahead of Gardner among the likely voters is in the state.
Georgia: Two runoff elections in the Senate possible
If no Senate candidate in Georgia wins more than 50%, a runoff election will take place between the two top voters. Due to a special election this year, both Georgian seats in the Senate are on the ballot. According to three polls this week, none of the candidates in either race has the support of more than 50% of voters, which means both races could end up in a runoff election.
In the special elections, Rev. Raphael Warnock, a Democratic candidate, leads the pack with 41% of the vote, according to a Public Policy Polling poll published on Saturday, while the Republican vote is mostly between Senator Kelly Loeffler (24%) and MP Doug Collins ( 22%). In the other race, PPP found a virtual dead end between incumbent GOP Senator David Perdue (43%) and his Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff (44%).
A poll of 600 likely voters published by WSB-TV / Landmark Communications on Friday also found that Perdue (47%) and Ossoff (46% in a virtual tie), as well as Warnock, came out on top in the special elections by 10 points. A University of Georgia survey found that Perdue was way ahead of Ossoff at 49% to 41%, but still 1 point behind the 50% required to avoid a runoff.
Montana: Poll shows Daines with a big lead over Bullock
Former Governor Steve Bullock won three national elections in Montana, which Trump won in 2016 with 20 points. However, according to an Emerson College, he is well behind in his quest to do so a fourth time against incumbent GOP Senator Steve Daines' poll October 5-7.
This poll found that Daines is 9 points above Bullock, 52% -43% below the likely voters.
Doubts about the legitimacy of the elections, fear of violence
A YouGov poll of 1,999 registered voters found that nearly half - 47% - disagree with the idea that the election "is likely to be fair and honest". And just over half - 51% - will "generally disagree about who is the legally elected President of the United States".
And 56% expect "an increase in violence as a result of the elections".
Biden viewed as more caring
Almost two in three (64%) Americans say Biden cares about those who have lost their jobs, while only more than half (52%) say the same about Trump, according to a poll by the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape Project.
Trump receives lowest rating yet for COVID response
Americans' approval of Trump's response to the coronavirus pandemic has hit its lowest point in a Reuters / Ipsos poll since the outbreak first struck the US.
The poll was conducted October 6-8 after the president left the hospital where he had been treated for COVID-19 and returned to the White House. 38% supported and 59% disapproved of Trump's handling of the public health crisis.
Should we trust polls after the 2016 surprise?
While experts suggest that surveys should be viewed as a snapshot, there are several reasons why they are unlikely to experience the same volatility and unreliability that they seemed to suffer from in 2016 - and also find that many national surveys fail this year were far away.
A big reason: there are few undecided voters this year. Another reason: While Clinton's lead was shrinking at this point in 2016, Bidens is growing.
Featuring: Rebecca Morin and Ledyard King, USA TODAY; Meredith Newman, Delaware News Journal
This article originally appeared in the US TODAY: Trump down double digits, Biden up in Florida: The Week in Polls
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