Thousands of voters registered for the Georgia Senate races. Who benefits?
According to TargetSmart voter data, which was analyzed by NBC News, nearly 70,000 voters have newly registered in the state.
Experts and representatives from both parties generally agree that minor changes in voter turnout will determine who wins these two races on January 5, considering how tight the results for the presidential and senate general election competitions were.
The NBC analysis found that 67,135 newly registered voters with no general election history were added to the list of potential voters for the upcoming runoff election. These voters were registered between November 4th and the state's registration deadline on December 7th.
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A total of 7,729,838 voters are registered in Georgia.
The drain stakes are high: if Democrats win both competitions, they will take control of the Senate. In one race GOP Senator David Perdue competes against Democrat Jon Ossoff and in the other race Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler competes against Democratic challenger Raphael Warnock.
The big question, of course, is whether the Democrats or Republicans get an advantage with this group of new voters. The new registration numbers suggest a slight benefit for the Democrats, and while encouraging to the party, the benefit is small and slight shifts in turnout among those who voted in the general election could make such minor gains unimportant.
If you just look at the newly enrolled voters, 29,850, or 44 percent, are affiliated with Democrats, according to the partisanship modeled by TargetSmart from multiple commercial sources. Another 27,455 voters, or 41 percent, are Republicans, and 9,830, or 15 percent, are not affiliated with any party.
Overall, 52 percent of newly registered voters in Georgia are men (34,638) compared with 48 percent (32,291) women.
Young voters - a strong Democratic bloc - are likely to play a key role in the Georgia runoff elections, either because they were not eligible to vote in November but have had birthdays since then that allowed them to vote in January, or because they loved it.
The data shows that several newly registered Georgians are between 18 and 29 years old. Thirty-nine percent of those who signed up to vote after the general election are under 30 (25,950). Another 18 percent (12,123) are between 30 and 39, 13 percent (8,938) are between 40 and 49, 18 percent (11,984) are between 50 and 64 and 12 percent (8,131) are 65 and older.
While white voters make up 52 percent (35,021) of the new registrants, black voters make up a remarkable 34 percent (22,970) of the newly registered voters. Hispanic voters in Georgia make up 5 percent (3,654) of newly registered voters, and Asian Americans make up 4 percent (2,737).
If you look at the top four counties with the highest number of voters who registered after November 3 - Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb, and DeKalb - at least four out of ten newly registered voters in each of the counties are under 30 years of age. In all four counties, Joe Biden easily beat President Donald Trump.
In Fulton County, 72 percent of newly registered voters are affiliated with the Democratic Party, while 17 percent are affiliated with the Republican Party. Fifty percent of the newly registered voters are black and 35 percent are white.
In DeKalb County, 47 percent of newly registered voters are black and 34 percent are white. Biden had a lead of over 40 points over Trump in the parliamentary elections in both countries.
In Gwinnett County, where Biden outperformed Trump by 18 points, compared to a six-point lead for Hillary Clinton in 2016, 51 percent of newly registered voters are Democrats and 28 percent Republicans. 34 percent of newly registered voters in Gwinnett County are white and 33 percent are black.
In Cobb County, where Biden outperformed Trump by 14 points, compared with a two-point lead for Clinton in 2016, 46 percent of newly enrolled voters are Democrats and 36 percent Republicans. Forty-eight percent of newly registered voters are white and 33 percent are black.
In Henry County, a suburb of Atlanta, where Biden outperformed the president by more than 20 points (compared to a four-point advantage for Clinton in 2016), 62 percent of newly enrolled voters are Democrats and 22 percent Republicans .
Black voters make up 52 percent of Henry County's newly registered voters. White voters make up 34 percent of the new registrants there.
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