Trump has turned Texas and Arizona purple, maybe even blue, Republicans worry
"Modern Texas as a Swing State?" David Weigel asks the Washington Post. "Democrats started dreaming about it after 2008," and "Republicans started warning about it in 2013," but in 2014, "as they have for 20 years, Republicans have dominated every nationwide race and come into contact with Hispanic voters." Blue Texas became a punch line. Then came Donald Trump. "
California and New Mexico have become pretty reliable Democratic states, and Republicans in neighboring Arizona and Texas are getting nervous about a consistently blue southwest. Some blame President Trump.
"The Democrats are well on their way to winning big in Arizona next month - from the presidential election to the State House," reports Sabrina Rodriguez at Politico. The shift goes back to Trump, but "has been accelerated in the past four years by his divisive presidency and the development of the GOP in Arizona from John McCain's party to Trump's". There are clear indications that Trump's policies "will not - or ever will - play well in Arizona in 2020," added Rodriguez, and if the state tilts, "Democrats could cement control of state politics, as they have done in other suburban states like Colorado and Virginia. "
"Unlike Arizona, where defeat in the suburbs can block the GOP's path to a majority, Texas has millions of rural, white, conservative voters who are alienated from the modern Democratic Party and who can overwhelm it with high turnouts," warns Weigel .
But even in Texas - especially the suburbs and suburbs of Dallas and Fort Worth - "early suburban women and, more recently, husbands" have moved "from camp to camp," said Cal Jillson, professor of political science at Southern Methodist University Post. "They were traditionally Republican voters, they are in transition now, some of them will go home, others will vote for [Democratic candidate Joe] Biden over Trump. That's where the real movement is. "
"Trump destabilizes politics so much that you can see Texas is in the game, but it probably wouldn't be so if you had a regular Republican presidential candidate," added Jillson. At least not now.
"It's Republicans fault for this to happen," Chuck Coughlin, a veteran GOP strategist from Arizona, told Politico. "Under Trump's party, you are just slandering people, not getting ideas ... As Senator John McCain would say, 'It's always darkest before it's all black.' And in this case black is blue. I hope the party will give some thought to the soul. "
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