Trumpworld Fears Its ‘Nightmare Scenario’ Is Coming True
When Donald Trump returns to the campaign this Saturday evening in Tulsa, Oklahoma, some of his leading political advisors are increasingly concerned that the president cannot get out of the hole he made for himself.
In the past two weeks, several lieutenants from the president and individuals in his administration have responded with increasing alarm as several surveys have shown that Trump is diving into the 1930s against former vice president Joe Biden, the alleged 2020 Democratic presidential candidate. In recent weeks, various advisors to the White House and Trump's reelection efforts have privately expressed cold comfort in the fact that everything that happened - a botched response to a deadly pandemic, a massively crippled US economy - protested across the country and a number of Trump's former top officials spoke out against him - it was practically a miracle that the president's polls had not dropped further.
Earlier this month, a senior White House official told The Daily Beast that her "nightmare scenario" would be for the president to slip below 40 percent support in a continuing series of public and private polls - signaling that a previously unshakable base is beginning to be a little disillusioned. Trump's enduring - though perhaps not enviable - reputation in the late 1940s had remained an example of his continued base and iron republican support for years.
"Until then, I'm not a doomsday hunter," said the official, referring to the nerve-wracking 1930s in national and some government surveys.
In the period since this comment, several surveys have shown that Trump is slipping into the 1930s. When asked about the change, the same White House official simply replied, "None of us wanted to be here at the time [of the elections], but there is still time ... to make up the difference."
Trump Aides know that his polls are terrible - and tell him otherwise
Some advisers blame weeks of coverage of the mass protests against institutional racism and police brutality after the murder of George Floyd and how Trump responded to recent polls. "When the race is on the news cycle and the conversation dominates, President Trump's numbers are always falling," said a source near the White House. "It's just a fact."
The source added that they hoped that reporting former Trump's National Security Advisor John Bolton's scrapbook would actually lead to a poll for the president, if for no other reason than less of racism, COVID, and social unrest speak .
But Trump had a knack for standing in the way of even the most elaborate media plans, not to mention those that his advisors hope will have an impact. Even the announcement of the Tulsa rally was full of hiccups and missteps. His team had previously planned it for Friday, which meant it would have fallen on June 19 in a city where one of the wildest black massacres was taking place in the country. After a backlash, the president announced the date change to Saturday. He then claimed that he had made Juneteenth "very famous" because it had "long since commemorated the end of slavery in the United States because" nobody had ever heard of it ". His White House press spokesman, Kayleigh McEnany, defended these statements on Friday by seeing an increase in Google searches.
Stephen Colbert slams Trump's "stupid" Juneteenth claim
Trump has also tried to portray the economic damage caused by the pandemic as volatile. But Republican activists have raised concerns that his speech about rocket shipping could effectively make him contactless for voters who still feel left behind. And even his own team is not sure if it is an effective campaign game. Two of the four officials mentioned above told The Daily Beast that the fact that they had not seen survey results in internal data or in several different public surveys was irritating the news of higher retail sales and the addition of 2.5 million jobs in May the president had given the bump they wanted and expected.
"If the next [unemployment] reports get better, hopefully you will see a change and a tangible impact," said one of these officials, adding that far too many people are currently unemployed and "injured".
Hoping to get an additional economic boost, Trump has repeatedly expressed a desire for additional federal incentives that some Republican officials believe would improve his chances. Top Democrats on the hill, however, say they haven't had formal talks with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin about such a package (House Democrats have adopted one of their own), and there is widespread aversion among the aides to working with the White House unless it provides more insight into how it spends the hundreds of billions of dollars that have already been appropriated.
"It is a top priority," said a senior house-democratic adviser who received responses to where the Treasury funds went.
Republican Senate officials have postponed talk of another bill. And even among Trump's advisory cadres there isn't much appetite for another stimulus calculation.
"The economic damage the coronavirus is causing is much less than predicted months ago ... It's terrible, but much better than experts expected in countries like California, Texas and Florida," said Art Laffer, the notoriously conservative economist, the Trump advises informally. "People even hedge their bets when there is a second wave of the virus ... The stock market tells us that this won't be a big deal. It's nothing compared to Y2K or 2008 ... They were really big Slumps in the market, and that's nothing compared to it. It started really big, with a big drop ... but then it came right back. It wasn't like that in 2008 and 2009. "
Without an important economic move or turnaround, Trump's options to reverse his vote slide are smaller. In an interview with Politico that was released on Friday, the president expressed some degree of concern about his chances against Biden. But he expressed concern in unsubstantiated theories about the possibility of rampant election fraud in postal ballot papers. "My biggest risk is that we won't win any lawsuits [regarding mail-in voting]," said the president. "We have a lot of litigation. And if we don't win these lawsuits, I think - I think that jeopardizes the choice. "
Trump seems to be increasingly happy to run the playbook used in 2016 again in the hope that it will work again. Elsewhere in this Politico interview, he warned other Republican candidates - including those who are committed to maintaining the party's Senate majority - against moving away from him no matter what his poll ratings look like. And in the past few days, his team has again made aggressive efforts to make Biden (like Hillary Clinton) physically and mentally uncomfortable. The president has brought back top helpers from his last presidential campaign and is also contacting one of his most prominent representatives from this race to help.
Politico reported on Thursday that the Trump campaign had recruited former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani - who, as Trump's personal lawyer, launched a dirt-digging expedition into the Bidens that led directly to the President's impeachment - to "lead a campaign." to push for more This autumn's debates start earlier than usual and have a say in the selection of moderators. “To give Trump more opportunities to publicly humiliate Biden, someone the president seems to be convinced will crack under a single grill.
When asked on Thursday whether he now has an official title for Trump 2020, Giuliani said to The Daily Beast: "No sir, I'm only helping out."
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