Which Senate seats are likely to flip on Election Day? Here’s what oddsmakers say
With Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump in double digits in national polls, bookmakers predict that six Senate seats will change on election day.
According to today's average of the survey averages from RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight, Biden was 10 points ahead of Trump nationwide on Monday.
Biden also leads Trump in 10 out of 11 swing states and expanded his lead in seven states, including North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan, according to the publication.
The US Senate is controlled by the GOP with 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats (including two independents). With 35 seats in the November 3rd election, 23 of which are currently held by Republicans, Democrats would have to win three or four seats to get a majority (three if Biden wins, four if Trump is re-elected because of the election Role of vice president in breaking relationships), according to political website 270toWin.
Because senators tend to vote partisan and a majority vote is required to pass bills, the Senate majorities often determine which bills are passed on the chamber floor.
To get a Senate majority, Democrats will likely have to win in Colorado, Maine, Arizona, and North Carolina, according to the Washington Post. Colorado's Cory Gardner is likely to be the "most vulnerable" Republican senator, according to the outlet.
Quota makers predict that Alabama's Senate seats will move to Republicans, while Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, and Iowa's seats will likely move to Democrats.
According to data from Bookies.us released on Monday, here are the betting odds for some major Senate races.
Republican challenger Tommy Tuberville has odds of 1/8, which means that betting $ 800 will return a profit of $ 100. Tuberville is favored to beat incumbent Democrat Doug Jones, who has 9/2 odds.
The betting odds show the Arizona seat shifting from Republican to Democratic, with incumbent Republican Martha McSally at odds of 7/2 and Mark Kelly at odds of 1/6.
The odds say Democrat John Hickenlooper will beat incumbent Republican Cory Gardner at odds of 1/7, at odds of 4/1.
The Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield is the favorite who wins with 4-5 odds. She beats Republican incumbent Joni Ernst with a 10-11 chance of winning.
Odds makers say Kentucky is likely to remain under Republican control as reigning Mitch McConnell is heavily favored at 1/8 odds to beat Democratic challenger Amy McGrath, who has 9/2 odds.
Democratic challenger Sara Gideon wins the election with odds of 4/11 and beats Republican incumbent Susan Collins with odds of 2/1.
Democrat Cal Cunningham has 4/6 odds and is preferred to beat Republican incumbent Thom Tillis who has 11/10 odds.
Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham is preferred to keep his Senate seat with a 4-9 chance of winning, which is likely to defeat Democrat Jaime Harrison, who has a 13-8 chance of winning.
These predictions are also in line with the odds published by Bookmaker, another betting website. For example, McSally has +422 chances to win compared to Kelly with -585 chances of winning. That means that wagering $ 100 would bring McSally $ 422, while you would have to wager $ 585 to win $ 100 for Kelly as his win is more likely.
Bookmakers also have Ernst and Greenfield neck to neck in Iowa, with Greenfield being the easy favorite. Ernst has -114 chances to win while Greenfield has -106.
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