Why Azerbaijan may not want a long-term ceasefire with Armenia in disputed region

Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed on a temporary ceasefire, which came into force on Saturday after nearly two weeks of violent conflict in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, so that both sides could exchange prisoners and recover bodies. Both countries were quick to blame the other for breaking it, though the capitals that have seen shelling so far - Shushi and Stepanänke - have reportedly seen a break from the violence.


The agreement was reached after 10 hours of negotiations in Moscow. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Yerevan and Baku would start "substantive talks" now, but not everyone is optimistic as both sides seem rigid in their demands.
Armenian Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan said Armenia wanted Nagorno-Karabakh - officially recognized as part of Azerbaijan but ruled mainly by ethnic Armenians - to be an independent state, while Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov said there was not enough pressure on Armenia during the discussions was exercised. Azerbaijan, backed by Turkey, expects to take control of more territory and the ceasefire will only last until the Red Cross arranges for bodies to be exchanged.
According to Al Jazeera, the Azeris feel that they "have the upper hand for the first time in 30 years" thanks to increased military power and "sophisticated weapons" and therefore reports of a long-term ceasefire may not be universally desirable. Read more at BBC and Al Jazeera.
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