Winners and Losers: Here's each contender's chances of making the College Football Playoff

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The picture of the College Football Playoffs is looking pretty clear heading into Championship Saturday.
With three teams unbeaten at the end of the 2022 regular season, three spots in the four-team playoffs seem almost guaranteed no matter what happens on the first Saturday of December.
However, fourth place could be intriguing. USC appears to be a ban on that spot if it wins the Pac-12 title game. But if the Trojans lose? Things could get messy.
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Here's how we assess the CFP picture after the final week of the season and each contender's chances of playing for the national title.
Georgia (12-0): 100%
It's hard to see the Bulldogs falling out of the top 4 during the SEC title game. Yes, Georgia took a while to get going on Saturday, but his dominance showed in the second half of his win over Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs will be big favorites over LSU in Atlanta on Saturday, and even if the upset happens, Georgia falling out of the top 4 seems virtually impossible.
Michigan celebrated a major victory over Ohio State on November 26, 2022 in Columbus, Ohio. Is 12-0 Michigan already a ban to reach College Football Playoffs? (Photo by Aaron J Thornton/Getty Images)
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Michigan (12-0): 95%
The Wolverines will also be heavy favorites against Purdue in Saturday's Big Ten title game. But much like Georgia, it's hard to see how Michigan fares outside of the college football playoffs, even if the Boilermakers pull off one of the upsets of the season. The reason Michigan isn't 100% like Georgia is because of the Wolverines' non-conference schedule. It was ridiculously soft. In the end it shouldn't matter.
TCU (12-0): 75%
The Horned Frogs capitalized on every error at Iowa State en route to 62 points Saturday to wrap up an undefeated regular season. TCU has the toughest conference title game of the three undefeated teams with Kansas State on tap next week, but we're not sure a Wildcats win would be too damaging unless it was a blowout. The committee has shown over the course of the season that they value the state of Kansas very much.
USC quarterback Caleb Williams (13) runs for a touchdown against Notre Dame on Saturday, November 26, 2022 in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
USC (11-1): 60%
With a victory in the Pac-12 title game against Utah, the Trojans are on the verge of becoming the top one-loss team in the playoffs. That win is easier said than done given Utah's win over the Trojans earlier in the year and USC's defensive problems. The Trojans are a team that at times is far too reliant on forcing sales. But it's pretty clear that USC is in a win-and-in scenario.
Ohio State (11-1): 35%
The Buckeyes may not have been completely eliminated from the CFP race despite Saturday's blowout loss to Michigan. If USC loses in the Pac-12 title game, fourth place is up for grabs. And wouldn't Ohio state come first? Everyone else has at least two losses. And never has a team made it to the playoffs with two losses. We'd be surprised if Ohio State were overtaken by a two-loss team that didn't play on Championship Saturday.
Alabama (10-2): 10%
The Crimson Tide won 10 or more regular season games for the 15th straight season after defeating Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Alabama will be ahead of both teams it lost to in the rankings Tuesday and likely just behind Ohio State. If Tuesday's Crimson Tide is ahead of the Buckeyes -- and we're not completely ruling it out -- then those odds need to be increased.
Clemson (10-2): 10%
The Tigers would have been in good playoff position with a win over South Carolina on Saturday. But two special teams fumbled Clemson to failure in a 31-30 loss. Combine two losses with an ACC title game against a North Carolina team that has lost to backup quarterbacks in each of the past two weeks, and it's hard to see Clemson creeping 11-2 into the playoffs.
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